Friday, August 12, 2005

Daane Daane Pe Likha Hai Khane Wale Ka Naam

This is has happened to me in recent past only. Motivated by the big bucks involved in the stock markets, four months back I also decided take a plunge. My first venture at it turned out to be a classic misadventure.

At that time, it were raining Initial Public Offers(IPO) and they were giving astronomical returns at the listing itself. After much deliberation, I decided to Shri-Ganesh with some IPO only. There were two companies whose offers were open at the time - Gokuldas Exports, and 3I Infotech.

Myself, a reluctant, new investor, without any much idea about EPS(Earnings Per Share), P/E Ratio(Price Of Share/Earnings Per Share Ratio) and Valuations did one of the most idiotic self analysis ever(though I did check out the past performance). Here is the sample.

Gokuldas Exports - not a good name to name a company. Never heard of it. IPO price -Rs 365, too high!

3I Infotech - An IT company. Not Bad. A subsidiary of ICICI Bank. Not bad at all. IPO Price - Rs 100, dead cheap!

I grabbed the latter, and applied for a huge amount of them. When I was allocated only 143 shares, I was visibly disappointed. I deserved more. However, I wasn't prepared for what was to follow.

On listing, the share price shot up to 118. That was 18% percent premium. I again felt bad for not getting more in IPO. I decided to wait on for further rise. That was when the bad days begun.

Infosys and TCS had performed pathetically during the last quarter of last year, and gave a bad guidance for the next quarter. These two results guide IT stocks, and such announcement sounded death knell for 3I Infotech. Down it came to 102 or thereabouts, to slip further to around 95!

I should mention here that to add insult to my injury - Gokuldas listed at 530, and kept on soaring ever since! So much for my analysis.

At the point when I was expecting a huge premium, I was running losses! After shedding a tear or two, I decided to wait, as they say - patience is key in the stock market. With time, both patience and stock price kept on dipping. About a month back, it sank down to 89!

That was the time I thought it's a goner, and whenever it would reach 100 or so, I would sell it with no profit and no loss. God listened to me, and with the revival of Sensex due to good last quarter results, good monsoons, and Foreign Investor funding - 3I Infotech settled down to 106, a marginal, but profit all right.

Sensex was at its peak. If it dipped for any reason, 3I Infotech would literally crash. So only last Monday - I did away with it at the price of 106, not accounting the brokerage charges, and felt relieved.

On the very next morning, that is Tuesday, when I read the newspaper - I almost choked on my breakfast. The right corner of business page carried a heading in block letters that 3I takes over a company in Europe. It meant good news for stock, and bad news for me. When I checked the stock price later in noon, it had shot up to 117, up by 13%! Next day, it again shot up by 13% to end at 132!

Like I said in heading- Daane Daane Pe Likha Hai Khane Wale Ka Naam! I waited four months for stock price to soar, and when it finally did - I had sold it only a day before! What an irony!
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